Anything above 1% as far as Federal Reserve rate hikes in a given calendar year tended to drag on performance. This is a slide we did at the beginning of last year, just highlighting the natural reality that when the Federal Reserve is aggressively raising rates that really drags performance across the board for both stocks and bonds. Moving on to the Federal Reserve raising rates is key. (01:30) Slide 4: How much the Fed raises rates is key Hopefully we see this momentum and good start to the year carry out through the rest of 2023. Versus if you have a positive January, you only finish those next 11-month periods negative 21% of the time. That happens 39% of the time when you have a negative January. If you have a negative January, you are much more likely to have a negative next 11 months. So fairly healthy difference between the two. If you have a negative January, you only average 7.6% the next 11 months. So certainly really robust returns if you have a positive January on average. If you have a positive January, the next 11 months average 12.5% return. Of course the thought here is whatever momentum January starts out with, the rest of the year is likely to continue that momentum, whether positive or negative. And wanted to look at the old market adage, so goes January, so goes the rest of the year. Let's begin February by recapping January's performance, especially on the stock side off to a good start. This is Mark Peterson with the February 2023 Student of the Market Update.
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